A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
